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By David C. Gompert, Paul K. Davis, Stuart E. Johnson, Duncan Long

In a fluid worldwide protection setting reminiscent of ours, assessing the prices, hazards, and certain outcomes of different nationwide protection innovations is as demanding because it is vital. The authors convey how, even within the face of uncertainty, the prices and different implications of any method will be assessed by way of studying the features wanted via U.S. combatant instructions

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Yet, reallocating defense funds can be harder than increasing them. Breaking settled allocation patterns risks internecine warfare. For instance, any major and lasting change in proposed “shares” of spending allocated to the four military services is sure to meet stiff congressional resistance. Reallocating spending among cabinet departments in line with changed strategy is easier—there are no departmental “shares”—but still difficult and slow to do. 4 Reasonable people may disagree over 3 Here, the principle of ignoring sunk costs may also come into play.

24 Analysis of Strategy and Strategies of Analysis Operating Units: Agents of Global Strategy The problem of connecting a strategy’s expected results with its expected costs is not unique to defense. In business, forecasting earnings, supporting share prices, constructing operating budgets, and meeting capital requirements depend on it. 9 Moreover, in diversified corporations, the sort loosely analogous to DoD, it is not enough to be able to estimate the total costs of implementing a given strategy: Unless it connects costs to different streams of revenue—in this or that market, from the sale of this or that product line—a corporation cannot really relate expected results to costs or, for that matter, actual results to costs.

Predicting casualties is hardly easy. Yet, if one strategy involves a low probability of huge losses and an alternative portends likely but lesser losses, this should not escape analysis. Organizational changes carry costs, including opportunity costs if other missions have to be downgraded. Would the Federal Emergency Management Agency have performed better during Hurricane Katrina had it still been independent and not been absorbed into the Department of Homeland Security as part of the post-9/11 government reorganization?

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